CAMPBELL, CA – “We expect that 2011 is going to be the peak for the fixed broadband aggregation equipment market,” says market research firm Infonetics Research in its 3Q11 PON, FTTH, and DSL Aggregation Equipment and Subscribers market share and forecast report. The report tracks fixed broadband access equipment and subscribers.
The PON spending boom in China, along with DSL growth in Central and Latin America and VDSL and GPON growth in the EMEA region, created a perfect storm of spending this year – but along with peaks come valleys. By 2015, the broadband aggregation market will decline to $5.0 billion from its expected high of $7.9 billion in 2011.
Spending in China and North America will slow after this year, and operator focus will shift from DSL to fiber. “DSL as an access technology will never disappear, but overbuilding with fiber (as Verizon and others have done) with the ultimate goal of removing copper will continue to grow among the world’s largest operators,” says Jeff Heynen, Infonetics Research analyst for broadband access and video.
. Global spending on broadband aggregation (DSL and FTTH) equipment declined 3 percent sequentially in 3Q11 to $2.0 billion, led by a double-digit drop in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
. Asia-Pacific is the only region to post an increase in broadband aggregation equipment spending, up 3 percent sequentially.
. Year-over-year, from 3Q10 to 3Q11, global fixed broadband aggregation revenue is up a healthy 15 percent.
. Huawei and ZTE continue their lead in overall broadband aggregation equipment revenue, though Huawei’s revenue dropped while ZTE’s increased, significantly narrowing the gap between the two.
. Alcatel-Lucent maintains its solid third-place lead in the market in 3Q11, while ADTRAN, thanks to its strong quarter shipping DSL in North America, moved into fourth position.
. Global spending on DSL equipment declined 9 percent in 3Q11 after a 14 percent increase last quarter, reflecting a slowdown in some major projects plus traditional third-quarter softness.